how to tell who is favored in betting

How to Tell Who is Favored in Betting

Understanding Betting Odds

Sports betting odds display the chances of an outcome happening in a sporting event. The odds determine how much you stand to win after betting a certain amount. The more you stand to win, the less likely the event is to happen. For example, if odds show that you’ll earn $170 from a $10 wager on the Denver Broncos beating the Washington Commanders٫ it suggests there’s a low chance of this occurring.

However, there is a difference between the odds of something actually happening (the true odds) and the odds given by sportsbooks (the implied odds).

You might also come across the notion of true odds and implied odds.

True odds are when a sportsbook sets a price that doesn’t include a take for itself. They reflect the true likelihood of an event happening.

Implied odds still reflect the chances of something happening, but they also include a house take, which in sports is called juice, or vig.

Take the Super Bowl coin toss. A bookmaker would calculate the odds of it landing heads up as even, or 100. Those are the true odds. However, the odds you’re offered on site might be -105. These are the implied odds.

In this example, you would earn $95 for every $100 you bet. The additional $5 is the sportsbook’s juice and ensures that they will make a profit regardless of the outcome.

Learning how to read betting odds takes some time, but all bettors eventually find the type of odds that work best for them.

Being able to read odds means you can quickly spot which teams are favorites and underdogs for events. You’ll also know which outcomes are worth betting on and where sportsbooks might have made an error that you can exploit.

Types of Odds Formats

Sportsbooks and esports betting sites including BetUS, MyBookie, and Bovada allow players to choose which odd types are displayed on the sites. There are three common categories of odds⁚ American, fractional, and decimal. Below is a breakdown of how each type works⁚

American Odds⁚ American odds show the amount you’d win after betting $100 on an outcome. They work like an index٫ whereby the higher the odds٫ the less likely your bet is to win (and the bigger your profits if it does win).

The odds are displayed in either a positive (+) or negative (-) format. Positive odds show winnings from a $100 bet. Meanwhile, negative odds show the wager amount needed in order to win $100.

Decimal Odds⁚ Decimal odds show the total return from a $1 bet. The higher the number, the more you win, but your wager comes with more risk.

Your total return is stake + profit, which means decimal odds of 2.00 have a 50% chance of winning. Any higher, and the chances of you winning are less than even. Any lower, and your chances of winning begin to increase.

Fractional Odds⁚ Fractional odds are the most complicated odds you can find in a sportsbook. Historically, they were the first odds used for sports betting, particularly in horse racing in the UK and Ireland more than three centuries ago.

The aim of fractional odds is to show how much profit you’ll make off a stake. The figure on the left of the / is your potential profit, and the figure on the right is your stake.

Identifying Favorites and Underdogs

Once you understand how the different odds formats work, identifying favorites and underdogs becomes relatively straightforward. Here’s a breakdown for each odds format⁚

American Odds⁚

Favorites⁚ Represented by a minus sign (-) followed by a number. The higher the number, the bigger the favorite. For example, -300 indicates a heavier favorite than -150.
Underdogs⁚ Represented by a plus sign (+) followed by a number. The higher the number, the bigger the underdog. For example, +200 indicates a bigger underdog than +150.

Decimal Odds⁚

Favorites⁚ Have odds lower than 2.00. The closer the odds are to 1.00, the bigger the favorite.
Underdogs⁚ Have odds higher than 2.00. The higher the odds, the bigger the underdog.

Fractional Odds⁚

Favorites⁚ Have a smaller number on the left side of the slash (/) than on the right side. For example, 1/2 represents a heavier favorite than 2/3.
Underdogs⁚ Have a larger number on the left side of the slash (/) than on the right side. For example, 5/1 represents a bigger underdog than 2/1.

Remember, these are just general guidelines. Always pay attention to the specific odds displayed, as different sportsbooks may offer slightly different lines.

Analyzing Odds Movements

Monitoring how odds fluctuate can provide valuable insights into which side the smart money might be leaning towards. Here’s why odds move and what these shifts can indicate⁚

Reasons for Odds Movements⁚

Betting Action⁚ When a large volume of bets comes in on one side, sportsbooks adjust the odds to balance their liability and encourage bets on the other side.
News and Information⁚ Injuries, suspensions, coaching changes, or even weather forecasts can significantly impact a game’s outcome, leading to odds adjustments.
Public Sentiment⁚ If the public heavily favors one side, oddsmakers might inflate the line on that side to capitalize on the bias, even if it doesn’t reflect the actual probability.

Interpreting Odds Movements⁚

Significant Shifts⁚ A dramatic odds movement, especially early on, often suggests that sharp bettors have identified valuable information or a discrepancy in the initial line.
Reverse Line Movement⁚ This occurs when the odds move in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. For example, if 70% of the bets are on Team A, but the line moves in favor of Team B, it might indicate that respected bettors are backing the underdog.
Steam Moves⁚ These are sudden and rapid odds changes, often triggered by a combination of sharp action and automated systems. Paying attention to steam moves can be profitable, but it requires quick decision-making.

By closely observing odds movements and understanding the factors influencing them, bettors can gain a valuable edge in identifying potentially profitable betting opportunities.

how to tell who is favored in betting