how to bet on spread nfl

How to Bet on the Spread NFL

NFL spread betting levels the playing field by handicapping the favorite team. This makes both teams more evenly matched for betting purposes. To bet the spread, you’ll need to choose whether you think the favorite will win by more than the spread, or the underdog will lose by less than the spread (or win outright).

Understanding the Basics

In the NFL, some teams are naturally stronger than others. This can lead to predictable outcomes and less exciting betting opportunities. That’s where spread betting comes in. It’s designed to level the playing field, making it just as enticing to bet on the underdog as it is on the favorite. Here’s how it works⁚

The Point Spread⁚ Oddsmakers assign a point value to each team in a matchup. This is the “spread,” and it reflects the perceived difference in skill between the two teams. The favorite will have a negative spread (e.g., -7)٫ while the underdog will have a positive spread (e.g.٫ +7).

Covering the Spread⁚ Your goal isn’t just to pick the winner; it’s to determine if the chosen team will “cover” their assigned spread.

Favorite⁚ The favorite must win by more than their spread. If the spread is -7, they need to win by 8 points or more for your bet to win.
Underdog⁚ The underdog can cover in two ways⁚ 1) Win the game outright٫ or 2) lose by fewer points than their spread. If the spread is +7٫ they can lose by 6 points or less (or win) for your bet to win.

Example⁚ Imagine the Kansas City Chiefs are playing the Las Vegas Raiders. The Chiefs are the favorites with a spread of -6.5, while the Raiders are +6.5 underdogs.

If the Chiefs win by 7 points or more, they cover the spread, and bets on the Chiefs win.
If the Raiders win the game outright or lose by 6 points or less, they cover the spread, and bets on the Raiders win.
If the Chiefs win by exactly 6 points, the bet is a “push,” and all wagers are refunded.

Key Point⁚ The spread isn’t about predicting the exact score; it’s about gauging the relative strength of the teams and whether the favorite will win by a margin larger than what the oddsmakers have set.

Reading and Interpreting NFL Spreads

When you look at NFL odds, you’ll see spreads displayed with numbers and symbols. Understanding how to read them is crucial for successful spread betting. Here’s a breakdown⁚

Format⁚ Spreads are typically shown with the favorite listed first, followed by the underdog. Here’s a typical format⁚

Example⁚ Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (+6.5)

Negative vs. Positive Numbers⁚

Negative Spread (-)⁚ Indicates the favorite. They must win by a margin greater than the spread for a bet on them to win.
Positive Spread (+)⁚ Indicates the underdog. They can lose by less than the spread or win outright for a bet on them to win.

Half-Points⁚ You’ll often see spreads with half-points (e.g., -3.5, +7.5). This is to prevent a push, ensuring a clear winner for betting purposes. With a half-point spread, one team has to win by a larger margin for bets to pay out.

Odds/Juice: Next to each spread, you’ll usually see odds, typically around -110. This represents the amount you need to wager to win $100. For example⁚

Chiefs -6.5 (-110)⁚ You need to bet $110 to win $100.
Raiders +6.5 (-110)⁚ You need to bet $110 to win $100.

Adjusting Spreads and Odds⁚ Sportsbooks can adjust spreads and odds leading up to the game based on factors like betting action, injuries, and news. Pay attention to these movements as they can signal shifts in perception and potential value.

Factors Influencing NFL Spreads

Oddsmakers carefully consider numerous factors when setting NFL spreads. Understanding these factors can give you an edge in making informed betting decisions⁚

Overall team records, offensive and defensive rankings, and head-to-head results heavily influence the initial spread.
Matchups where one team has consistently outperformed the other may result in larger spreads.

Key player injuries, especially at quarterback, can significantly impact a team’s chances.
Spreads often shift to reflect the potential absence of star players.

Home Field Advantage⁚

Playing at home provides a distinct advantage in the NFL.
Oddsmakers typically factor in a 2.5 to 3-point advantage for the home team.

Extreme weather, such as heavy rain, snow, or strong winds, can affect scoring and game flow.
Spreads may adjust closer to game time if significant weather changes are anticipated.

Public Perception and Betting Action⁚

While oddsmakers set initial spreads, they also react to public betting trends.
If a large amount of money comes in on one side, the spread may move to encourage bets on the other side and balance the books.

Teams playing on short rest or traveling long distances might be at a slight disadvantage.
Oddsmakers may adjust spreads slightly to account for these factors.

By staying informed about these influencing factors and analyzing how they might affect a particular game, you can make more strategic NFL spread betting choices.

Strategies for Successful Spread Betting

Successfully betting on NFL spreads involves more than just picking winners. Employing effective strategies can significantly increase your chances of long-term profitability⁚

Shop for the Best Lines⁚

Odds can vary slightly between sportsbooks.
Comparing lines and betting with the book offering the most favorable spread for your chosen team (even half a point can make a difference) can maximize your potential winnings.

NFL games often end with scores close to certain margins, most notably 3 and 7.
Getting the best side of these key numbers (e.g., getting a +3.5 underdog instead of +3) can be crucial.

Analyze Recent Form and Performance⁚

Don’t get stuck on early-season results.
Focus on how teams have performed recently, considering factors like injuries, coaching adjustments, and strength of schedule.

Look beyond basic stats.
Evaluate factors like rivalry games, potential playoff implications, a team’s rest advantage/disadvantage, and even coaching styles.

Don’t Chase Losses and Manage Your Bankroll⁚

Avoid chasing losses with bigger bets.
Set a budget for your bets and stick to it, typically risking no more than 1-5% of your bankroll on a single game.

Public betting often leans towards favorites.
Going against the grain and backing underdogs, especially in games where the public perception might be skewed, can offer value if you’ve done your research.

Remember, consistency and informed decision-making are key. By applying these strategies and conducting thorough research, you can increase your odds of making winning NFL spread bets over time.

Managing Your Bankroll

Effective bankroll management is crucial for long-term success in NFL spread betting. It’s not just about picking winners; it’s about protecting your funds and ensuring you can continue betting responsibly⁚

Set a Budget and Stick to It⁚

Determine a specific amount of money you’re comfortable risking on NFL betting before the season starts.
Avoid chasing losses by increasing your bets beyond your predetermined limits, even if you’re on a losing streak.

Divide your bankroll into smaller units, typically 1-5% each.
This allows you to manage risk and avoid significant losses from a single wager.

Avoid Emotional Betting⁚

Don’t let emotions like excitement or frustration influence your betting decisions.
Stick to your analysis and predetermined betting plan.

Keep a detailed record of all your bets, including the date, game, spread, amount wagered, and outcome.
This helps you identify patterns, evaluate your strategies, and make adjustments as needed.

Don’t Be Afraid to Take Breaks⁚

If you’re on a losing streak or feel your judgment is clouded, take a step back from betting.
A clear mind and fresh perspective can be invaluable.

Remember, NFL spread betting should be enjoyable and potentially profitable. By managing your bankroll effectively, you can stay in the game longer, ride out losing streaks, and capitalize on winning opportunities when they arise. Responsible betting leads to more enjoyable experiences in the long run.